How plant-based policies could cut emissions

Report

20 November 2024

Our latest study shows how capping agriculture emissions and promoting plant-based foods can help Canada reach its 2030 and 2050 climate targets.

In August 2022, we commissioned Navius Research to complete an analysis exploring the role of animal-sourced food consumption in achieving Canada's greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. This research found that a shift to plant-based diets could reduce agricultural emissions and lower the cost of reaching Canada's 2030 and 2050 emissions targets.

Building upon this, Navius Research completed a new analysis, “Policies to Promote Plant-Based Food Production and Consumption in Canada”. This latest study focuses on how specific policies could encourage plant-based agriculture and food consumption to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Executive summary

Full report

Using a simulation to model Canada’s economy, energy use and emissions, Navius Research predicted the effectiveness of different policies to impact emissions while sustaining our economy, and how people and companies might respond to these changes:

Agriculture emissions cap

Introducing a cap on GHG emissions from agriculture, similar to the current caps on Canada’s oil and gas sector, could reduce GHG by 29 Metric tons (Mt) CO₂e by 2030 and 89 Mt by 2050. This would mainly come from reducing animal farming, since animal agriculture is more carbon intensive than plant-based agriculture, with a 22% drop by 2030 and a 50% drop by 2050. This policy alone would be enough to get Canada back on track to hit its 2030 and 2050 climate targets, while still allowing for sustainable economic growth in the sector. Emissions would fall even further if consumers shift to more plant-based diets.

Animal agriculture production limit

Limiting the growth of animal agriculture could cut emissions by 11 Mt CO2e by 2030 and 39 Mt by 2050. This policy would lead to a decline in animal production by 19% (2030) and 43% (2050). While plant-based agriculture would still grow, it would do so more slowly, so overall agricultural growth would only be slightly reduced.

Subsidy on plant-based food alternatives

Offering a 15% subsidy on plant-based alternatives, making them more affordable for consumers, would have a modest impact on emissions. The research also found that while a subsidy for plant-based proteins alone would not be effective at shifting consumption patterns, it could be effective in combination with other efforts such as labeling schemes and education programs to promote the benefits of plant-based foods.

Key insights

Results from this analysis provides some key insights for policymakers, including:

Agriculture’s role in achieving emission targets: Canada's farming sector can help meet Canada’s 2030 emissions goal. There’s a gap of 9 Mt of CO₂e between current policies and the target but capping agricultural emissions or limiting animal agriculture could help close this gap.
Sustainable growth until 2050: Although policies to reduce emissions may slow down economic growth compared to current policies, the agriculture sector and Canada’s economy will continue to grow with policies that encourage increased plant-based diets while also reducing emissions.
Emissions cap for cost-effective reduction: An emissions cap on agriculture is the most efficient policy for reducing emissions, encouraging abatement technologies and a shift towards plant-based diets.
Animal agriculture production limit for food system transformation: Limiting animal agriculture is more effective than an emissions cap for transforming Canada’s food system, offering environmental benefits beyond GHG reduction, such as improved land use, water conservation, biodiversity and reduced pandemic risk.
Policy and behavioural changes: The effectiveness of policies depends on consumer behaviour. Emission caps or production limits are less effective if people do not adopt more plant-based eating. However, subsidies could amplify the impact if more people already choose plant-based options.

A pathway to Canada’s Sustainable Agriculture Strategy

Canada’s agriculture sector must do more to contribute to the nation’s emission reduction strategy. While technological innovations are important, we need to critically examine what we eat and how it’s produced. The proposed policies align with Canada’s broader goals, including the development of a Sustainable Agriculture Strategy.

To make meaningful progress in cutting emissions and achieving Canada’s climate goals, implementing policies that limit animal agriculture and promote plant-based foods is crucial.

These strategies not only address greenhouse gas emissions but also offer broader environmental and health benefits. By combining these approaches with consumer incentives, we can build a more sustainable future.